نویسنده
عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Given that the Islamic Republic of Iran has experienced highly volatile periods of inflation and recession, this article aims to develop a macroeconomic model based on growth with moderate inflation. Utilizing the methodology of De Haan and Sumner (2004), this study identifies periods of inflationary expectations in Iran's economy from 1979 to 2020 (pre-COVID-19) and develops a conceptual model of inflationary expectation formation, including the key variables influencing its emergence and intensification during the period of new sanctions implementation from 2006 to 2020. The results indicate that Iran's economy experienced stagflation during the imposed war years and, with increasing intensity of sanctions from 2006 to late 2020, developed speculative-driven inflationary expectations. Since these inflationary expectations (2006-2020) were influenced by speculative motives, this study introduces the characteristics of enabling technologies to control speculative incentives in inflationary expectation formation. Furthermore, it proposes a financing model for these enabling technologies in Iran's economy to achieve increasing investment growth with moderate inflation while simultaneously controlling liquidity through the transformation of government fiscal balance leaps into financial backing for private sector (real estate) and securities markets.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)